A powerful storm system will move across the region this weekend with showers and thunderstorms expected Saturday and Saturday night. Some of the storms could be strong to severe over far southern Arkansas. Some strong tornadoes will be possible.
If severe storms make it into southern sections of the state, the main concerns would be strong to damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes. The limiting factor for this event will be the amount of available instability. Across much of the region, it will be somewhat cool on Saturday. Given a lot of clouds and widespread precipitation, the environment will have difficulty warming. This will tend to cut down on the amount of severe weather that occurs.
There will be areas of heavy rain. Two to three inches of rain will be possible in the southern half of Arkansas. Much of the south has received well above average precipitation in the last few weeks, and the soil is saturated. Given heavy downpours, the soil cannot hold much additional water. This will make flash flooding more likely.
The storm system will exit to the east by Sunday morning. Moisture wrapping around the system will keep showers in the forecast. Another storm system will bring additional chances of rain to the state during the middle of next week.
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a large part of Arkansas, including Ashley, Chicot, Drew, Bradley, Desha, Lincoln, Cleveland, Ouachita, Calhoun, Dallas, Arkansas, Jefferson, Grant, Pulaski, Lonoke, Saline, Garland, Hot Spring, Clark, Pike, Monroe, Prairie, Montgomery, Polk, Perry, Yell, Scott, Woodruff, White, Faulkner, Conway, Logan, Jackson, Cleburne, Van Buren, Pope, Johnson, Lawrence, Independence, Izard, Stone, Searcy, Newton, Randolph, Sharp, Fulton, Baxter, Boone and Marion counties.